Focus. Match your "Where to Play" with a strong "How to Win" and invest aggressively.
In everything—software, content, attention—you're either inventing and leading the category, or wasting your time, money, & effort to catch up and "play to play."
> If your chances of creating a killer app while doing X things is A%, it will be >A% if you focus on doing .5X things.
Amazing phrasing. **That** is the mathematics behind strategy, right there. It's all about having a logically robust and integrated thesis of victory that you believe will shift the odds under unavoidable uncertainty!
Of course, it's an optimization problem, keep concentrating more and more, and the risk of total ruin also increases. Which is what makes the problem of Strategy so fascinating!
Your point is well taken. Uncertainty is not a modern invention, and strategy has always been forged in imperfect, shifting conditions. That said, the last few years have introduced a different kind of compounding effect: traditional volatility and ambiguity are now amplified by the rapid penetration of AI into both business operations and everyday life. This combination is what keeps many executives awake.
Yet within this turbulence lies significant opportunity. Rough seas are often the best environment to outmaneuver competitors, precisely because calm waters tend to reveal strategic intent long before it is executed. I also agree that VUCA is too often invoked as a convenient explanation for poor performance. Whether conditions are stable or unstable, the mandate remains the same: aim to win and use uncertainty as a strategic advantage rather than a rationale for inaction.
Change comes relatively quickly now, and much of it is disruptive to markets and organizations. The onus is on leadership to create a sustainable future and that requires a culture that embraces change for opportunity and risk mitigation.
BTW, if Progressive shows competitors prices on its website, its only because in certain locations its base rates (state approved) are competitive. However, base rates are usually not the final rates consumers are quoted. Final rates can vary as much as +/- 25%. from base rates based on factors like age, location, crime rates, type of vehicle, driving and claims history. credit scores, and more. Insurance is viewed by many as a commodity, but in reality there are significant differences from price to claim services to marketing.
Focus. Match your "Where to Play" with a strong "How to Win" and invest aggressively.
In everything—software, content, attention—you're either inventing and leading the category, or wasting your time, money, & effort to catch up and "play to play."
> If your chances of creating a killer app while doing X things is A%, it will be >A% if you focus on doing .5X things.
Amazing phrasing. **That** is the mathematics behind strategy, right there. It's all about having a logically robust and integrated thesis of victory that you believe will shift the odds under unavoidable uncertainty!
Of course, it's an optimization problem, keep concentrating more and more, and the risk of total ruin also increases. Which is what makes the problem of Strategy so fascinating!
Your point is well taken. Uncertainty is not a modern invention, and strategy has always been forged in imperfect, shifting conditions. That said, the last few years have introduced a different kind of compounding effect: traditional volatility and ambiguity are now amplified by the rapid penetration of AI into both business operations and everyday life. This combination is what keeps many executives awake.
Yet within this turbulence lies significant opportunity. Rough seas are often the best environment to outmaneuver competitors, precisely because calm waters tend to reveal strategic intent long before it is executed. I also agree that VUCA is too often invoked as a convenient explanation for poor performance. Whether conditions are stable or unstable, the mandate remains the same: aim to win and use uncertainty as a strategic advantage rather than a rationale for inaction.
Change comes relatively quickly now, and much of it is disruptive to markets and organizations. The onus is on leadership to create a sustainable future and that requires a culture that embraces change for opportunity and risk mitigation.
BTW, if Progressive shows competitors prices on its website, its only because in certain locations its base rates (state approved) are competitive. However, base rates are usually not the final rates consumers are quoted. Final rates can vary as much as +/- 25%. from base rates based on factors like age, location, crime rates, type of vehicle, driving and claims history. credit scores, and more. Insurance is viewed by many as a commodity, but in reality there are significant differences from price to claim services to marketing.
A brilliant articulation of why good strategy matters now, more than ever. Thank you Roger!